Tariffs Leave Less Room for Businesses to Invest Due to Uncertainty
In the face of a changing tariff environment, importers are more likely to change their trading behavior, put off launching new products and be short on the resources to pursue opportunities to bolster their business due to uncertainty, experts said at the Invest in America Summit. In turn, the potential for revenue for the U.S. government erodes as businesses make fewer investments.
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Eugene Laney, president of the American Association of Exporters and Importers, said his members were struggling with “decision friction,” around addressing tariffs. He said as companies try to navigate tariffs, they’re putting off investment decisions or launching new products.
“They're pregnant with prosperity in the sense they want to grow, but they're being held back, you know, by these tariffs and some of these other trade measures,” he said.
There were over 50 official changes to U.S. tariff policy in 2025, not including unofficial changes, such as social media posts, said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy.
Laney said the importers are resilient, as they have been able to leverage the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and artificial intelligence to support their manufacturing and customs efforts. He said importers want certainty and want input in policy decisions to help make the best decisions.
AAEI advocated that CBP start refunding the less complex reciprocal tariffs, and Laney said he thinks CBP was positioned to move on to more complex ones until DOJ appealed the order to make refunds to those who paid tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Laney said he sat down with a small business that said a refund could allow the company to invest in a new equipment plant and allow employees to go on a trade mission to Korea.
Laney’s measurement of trade is the Under Armour test, where Kevin Plank built an apparel company in 10 years that now competes with Adidas, Puma and Nike. The essence of the test is examining whether the U.S. is in a trade environment where the “next Kevin Plank” would be able to innovate and bring that to a global field.
He thinks tariffs have slowed that ability down, especially with the uncertainty regarding USMCA.
“I think we've got to return back to regular order, where we had Congress involved leading the charge.”
York said the Trump administration ended up collecting hundreds of millions less in tariffs than it projected, because the level of tariffs changed the import activity.
“People will import less. Avoidance and evasion behavior will increase. You may see people trying to qualify for a lower tariff by reporting different numbers or routing things through third countries that face a lower tariff,” she said.